From the article Betting to Improve the Odds
by Steve Lohr (April 9, 2008, New York Times):
Corporations live and die by ideas, and many enterprises have used Web-based technologies, like blogs, wikis and social networks, to gather thoughts and hasten their way into new services, products and cost-saving steps.
Now executives say they are harnessing a new Web tool, called prediction markets, to transform the idea pipelines inside their companies.
The article goes on to explain that prediction markets involve employees betting virtual money on the likelihood of the company they work for achieving particular goals (e.g. the date of opening a new store). The most accurate forecasters receive rewards (e.g., free iPOD). Management get the benefit of harnessing the collective wisdom of their employees.
Sounds promising to me - with no reason it couldn't be applied to the education section:
in the last few years, corporate experimentation has moved beyond high-tech businesses into other industries, including retailing, consumer packaged foods, hotels, health care, steelmaking and telecommunications.
Like blogs and wikis, prediction markets can spur communication and collaboration within a company. Yet they add rigorous measurement to business forecasts, like estimating the sales of a new product or the chances that a project will be finished on time.
What do you think - worth giving it a go? What are the odds of increasing our EFSTL by 5% to 9000 by 2013? What % up or down do you think enrolments in your discipline area will be next year compared to this year?
References
Employee prediction markets - Management Web2.0 style
